Unlike the global economy, India would not slow down: RBI article


MumbaiUnlike the global economy, India would not slow and hold the 2022-2023 growth rate, an RBI article said Tuesday. “We remain bullish on India regardless of the odds,” said the article on the state of the economy published in the March edition of the Reserve Bank bulletin.

The NSO’s late-February figures show that the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many other parts of the world to face a challenging year, mainly because of its proven resilience and its reliance on domestic factors, it said.

Even as global growth will slow or even enter recession in 2023, as global financial markets bet, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than initially thought, with a steady increase in momentum since the second quarter of the current financial year. it said.

“Year-over-year growth rates do not reflect this pace, being saddled with statistical base effects by construction, and instead suggest a sequential slowdown through successive quarters from 2022-23 to an unsuspecting reader,” the article said.

The article was written by a team led by the RBI’s deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra.

The authors further said that India’s real GDP may rise from Rs 159.7 lakh crore in 2022-23 to Rs 170.9 lakh crore against the current projection of Rs 169.7 lakh crore in 2023-24.

“This is simple arithmetic; hardly a hurray at halftime. Moreover, unlike the global economy, India would not slow down – it would maintain the growth rate achieved in 2022-23. We remain bullish on India regardless of the odds,” said the article.

Currently available projections of India’s real GDP growth for 2023-2024, including that of the RBI, are between 6 and 6.5 percent.

The central bank said the views expressed in the article are those of the authors and not the views of the Reserve Bank of India.