How wrong were our startup predictions for 2022? •


What a decade this year has been. While forecast pieces always come with a big asterisk because literally nobody knows anything about what might happen in the future — like massive shocks to major startup sectors — our 2022 outlook is out of date… interestingly enough.

Last year, Natasha Mascarenhas, Alex Wilhelm and Anna Heim highlighted three different startup theses that could define the next 12 months. Now we fact-check how accurate those predictions were, and what we would change about our perspectives. We know. Humble.

For a light holiday riff, we’re talking about what’s happened to the M&A space, open source, and usage-based pricing. Let’s have some fun!

Natasha: Let’s talk about acquisitions

Last year, I predicted that M&A would evolve into a riskier ambition. I mentioned Twitter’s hunger for a Slack competitor and Nike’s infatuation with NFT collectibles. I even reminded founders that startups need to “stay disciplined even in a high-money environment” rather than “come up with lukewarm climate and web3 strategies because that’s what they think their cap table wants to hear.” (And that culture and technology are difficult to integrate at the same time).