Avatar 2: The Way of Water; Five reasons why the movie could be a flop


Avatar The way of the water finally hits theaters after more than a decade of waiting. It is a sequel to the 2009 mega-blockbuster Avatar, the highest-grossing film of all time.

While hardly anyone dares to question the artistic ability of director James Cameron and his films, some lingering factors seem strong enough to influence the film’s success.

The film already has a lot of hopes to meet. Given the thirteen years it took to make a final product, the question of how moviegoers will fare remains an ongoing concern. There are also those new sets of hurdles for The Way Of Water, as a lot has changed in the years it’s been in production.

So here are five reasons why Avatar 2 flops at the box office or fails to live up to said expectation.


5) Avatar 2 has high box office expectations

The extremely high cost of production and the time it took has made the box office expectations of this movie the biggest test for Cameron. For the movie, the final meaning of success would be $2 billion and every ticket counts.

Avatar 2 will be released on December 16, 2022
Avatar 2 is the second film of director James Cameron’s 2009 film Avatar

Cameron told GQ that for Avatar 2 to be profitable, it has to be the third or fourth highest grossing film in history. That means it should match Star Wars The Force Awakens ($2.07 billion) and Avengers: Infinity War ($2.05 billion). However, people expected it to be much more than that, possibly a historic milestone at the global box office.

4) Avatar 2 could have a problem with its theatrical run in China

It’s an established fact that Hollywood also needs China to make itself the box office king or at least enter the multi-billion dollar market. But the largest theater business area is not completely without the pandemic problem of 2020. Several blockbuster films failed to reach their full potential as the Chinese theaters were unable to entertain those projects due to the lockdown protocol. Spider-Man No Way Home lost almost half a billion dollars because the film did not reach the Chinese market.

Actor Sam Worthington at the premiere of Avatar 2 on December 12, 2022
Will Avatar 2 flop?

Avatar could also have a similar problem. Zero covid protests are still taking place in the country with the occasional lockdown. This implies that Avatar 2’s run in China is a question mark.

Hollywood has also yet to fully recover from the pandemic loss.

3) There may be a competition for the movie

It’s worth noting that the Disney movie hasn’t had as much success when it comes to the holiday season. There are usually other family themed movies and quite a few to give audiences different choices.

But luckily the Jamie flatters starrer doesn’t have much or big competition. However, there is one unlikely but possible contender for Cameron’s multimillion-dollar sequel. It’s the DreamWorks animated movie, Cat in Boots. The film has received positive prerelease buzz thanks to its studio reputation. It also has a 98 percent viewing rating on Rotten Tomatoes and is also a family-friendly film, not to mention an animated film that also draws a large number of children. What’s more, the reason analysts have been taking this film seriously is that DreamWorks’ previous release, Minions: The Rise Of Gru, had an anticipated opening weekend of $125 million.

2) Avatar 2 will be released in a different time/era

Times are very different from the old days when Avatar’s first sequel hit theaters in 2009. We are mainly talking about the film and television market. Streaming services have made going to theaters moot. While Avatar 2 will deliberately remain in theaters for an extended period of time, once it hits the Disney Plus library, the question is whether people are going to leave their seats and head to theaters for a re-release. , something the first film benefited greatly from.

Actress Sigourney Weaver attends 20th Century Studio Avatar 2 The Way Of Water on December 12, 2022
Actress Sigourney Weaver plays Kiri in Avatar The Way Of Water. Getty

Unlike MCU or DC movies, Avatar doesn’t have the built-in generation of a fanbase to carry a franchise. It depends on a global audience and needs a mainstream buzz to become successful. That said, it begs the question of whether that will be enough to be profitable or not.

The performance of the film’s trailer on YouTube is also worrying. The Avatar 2 trailer was viewed about 40 million times and took about 30 days to make.

1) Avatar The way of water is not so unique

The main feature of the Avatar franchise is its groundbreaking visual effects and theatrics. This is what the moviegoers praised about the first movie and they still talk about it. Story-wise, though, it was no different than what Hollywood has seen for years. The plot of the first movie seemed to be inspired by movies like Pocahontas, Clash of the Titans, Dune, Dancing with wolves, A man called horse, Atlantis: the lost realmand others.

Worthington left as Jake and Saldana as Neytiri in Avatar 2009
Jake Sully and Neytiri in Avatar 2009

Now it’s a matter of fear if the sequel follows that path too and it is doubtful if impressive CGI will still seduce people be available for reruns and re-release. Moreover, the current trend for movies to be convincing box office hits is to keep audiences wanting to go to the theaters while getting sequels upon sequels to keep the story and appeal quite fresh, for example MCU and the Star Wars franchise . Avatar 2 has a 13-year gap between itself and its predecessor. It is likely that even with the marketing people are tired and have forgotten what it was and what it promised to be.

Avatar 2 can still be a huge success

Disney has almost monopolized the movie theater slots for this movie. They’ve made sure the sequel is the only show in town. Indeed, the film has almost no competition during the holiday season and will hit theaters. At least there aren’t any tentpoles or superhero blockbusters that will come specifically from MCU or DCU. Some of the notable movies set to hit theaters during the Avatar 2 time frame include Top Gun Maverick (the re-release), violent night, The whale starring the iconic actor, Brendan Fraserand I want to dance with someone. All the above movies will not take much effort in The Way Of Water collection.

Early projections have reported that the movie will definitely make $150 to $175 million domestically, though a large number of Avatar 2 directors and the rest of the team on the production side are expecting the movie to do extremely well, especially in the US. international areas.

It is expected to do well in 3D, as more than 90 percent of audiences have seen the Avatar re-release in 3D.

While the franchise doesn’t have a generational audience or particular fan base, the world of Pandora keeps general audiences flocking to theaters with the same enthusiasm. When Avatar made its last re-release, the film made $30 million worldwide on its opening weekend with $20.5 million from overseas. It’s without a doubt an impressive number for a re-release. Before that, the 2021 China re-release made nearly $58 million.

The movie starring Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, Stephen Lang, Vincent Dieselamong other things, will be officially released on December 16, 2022.