After a volatile week, markets expect to stay within reach, says Arun Kejriwal


Markets have seen wild swings over the past week, with a sharp decline for the first three days, followed by a more than equally sharp rise and then a fall to return to neutral territory. Friday was a nothing day and the markets ended marginally. The week ended with a small negative bias and in what could be termed a very volatile week.

BSESENSEX lost 30.54 points or 0.05 percent to close at 58,803.33 points while NIFTY lost 19.45 points or 0.11 percent to close at 17,539.45 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.20 percent, 0.29 percent and 0.38 percent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.37 percent, while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.35 percent.

The Indian rupee won 6 paisa or 0.08 percent to close at Rs 79.80 for the US dollar. Dow Jones continued to be under pressure, losing on four out of five trading sessions. It lost 964.96 points or 2.99 percent and closed at 31,318.44 points. It is now down 13.81 percent year-on-year. In a comparable comparison, Indian benchmark indices are up about one percent.

India is now the world’s fifth largest economy. It expressed the United Kingdom. GST collections for the month of August amounted to 1.43.612 crore. This is the sixth consecutive month that the collection is at Rs 1.40 lakh crore or above.

The primary market sees the problem of Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Limited tapping into the markets with its new issue of 1,58.40,000 shares in a price range of Rs 500-525. The issue is said to fetch Rs 792-831.6 crore at the price range. The issue opens on Monday, September 5 and closes on Wednesday, September 7. On Friday, the company completed the allotment to anchor investors of 71.28,000 shares at Rs 510. Over the past few years, it is not remembered that the anchor book or allotment was made at a price that is lower than the upside.

As for the bank’s performance, it is a 100-year-old private bank that dominates in the state Tamil Nadu. In business terms, no less than 75 percent come from the state of Tamil Nadu. The next part of the cases comes from the states of Maharashtra, Andhra PradeshKarnataka and Gujarat contributing about 16 percent.

The bank has grown enormously during the Covid-19 pandemic. The EPS has doubled from 2019-20 to 2021-22 from Rs 28.61 to Rs 42.34 and finally to Rs 57.67. It also has a decent asset quality. Gross NPAs were 1.69 percent, while net NPAs were 0.95 percent for the year ended March 2022.

The shares being offered at a price range of Rs 500-525 have a PE multiple of 8.67-9.10 times the profit in FY 22. In terms of book value is the same at Rs 374.41, which is the issue at 1 .4 times the price to book.

Looking at the allocation of anchors, it becomes clear that the new price range is now Rs 500-510 and shares are allocated at Rs 510. Readers can apply for the shares of the bank considering the fundamentals and pedigree as it is a 100 is one year old bank. There may be a limited benefit to the listing and investors should only apply for the medium term. Given its peer group, the bank is appropriately priced.

As of September 1, a change has been made to the bidding process for IPOs. Bids should be blocked by the end of the day before final bid figures are announced. This is in relation to the hue and cry that was generated when thousands of requests were seen not saved after a bid was made. It was also noted that issues subscribed at the end of the bidding period were actually signed after the final figures. This would put an end to bidding by investors who wanted to eat and have the pie.

Coming to the markets in the coming week, we will see that volatility continues. While FPIs were mostly buyers most days in August, this is not the case in September and they were also sellers. Business is not the best in US markets and the 75 basis point increase in the September 20-21 meeting is a foregone conclusion. What and how the markets react would be based on the commentary after the outcome of the meeting.

Our markets should face strong resistance at the 17,750-800 and 59,450-59,550 levels. If for some reason they manage to break through these levels, the previous highs of 18,000 and 60,400 would be definitive resistances in the period ahead. Strong support exists at 17,350 and 58,200. If these break, the next level would be 17,000-17,050 and 57,250-57,350. The strategy for the week would be to keep selling on rallies and buying on sharp dips. Markets are in a trading zone and they have to decide where to go in the medium term.


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